2014 Midterm Election Analysis

ELECTION ANALYSIS 2014

I know...I know...I'm late.  I posted on my Facebook page the day after the elections that I was going to write my analysis of the 2014 Election.  Life gets in the way sometimes.  My daughter wants to play with Daddy, and I'm writing papers on the views of old, dead political philosophers.  This is to say that writing my next blog entry was not on my radar.  Now that I have some time to write, I will now give my analysis of the 2014 Election. Being that every pundit or "know-it-all" (I probably fit into one of those categories) has given their thoughts on the election, this post will be short and sweet.

MESSAGE TO THE REPUBLICANS
Former New York Governor Mario Cuomo famously said, "We campaign in poetry, but we govern in prose.".  Republicans...you were successful in winning more seats in the House, securing your control of the House, you all won gubernatorial elections in several states, and of course, you all won enough seats to take control of the United States Senate, thus having control of both houses of Congress.  CONGRATS!!!  Be careful what you ask for.  Their success is due to:  (1) Playing to the fears and prejudices of their core constituencies, (2) Turning President Obama into the "Boogie Man", (3) Linking Democratic candidates to President Obama and (4) Taking advantage of various events and somehow linking them to President Obama.  However, what is often a person's or group's strength is often their weakness.  Although they were successful in maligning President Obama, they unfortunately didn't inform the American People about THEIR plans for the country.  The GOP's strategy has been simple, yet effective...oppose any and all things President Obama supports, create a false narrative, and don't put forth any substantive proposals that the Democrats can address, oppose or come to some agreement on.  Instead we get:   "WE HATE OBAMACARE!!!  REPEAL IT!!!".  "Obama was responsible for the Ebola virus spreading!!!".  "He salutes while drinking coffee."  "Obama is acting like a KING because of his use of Executive Orders."  Superficial tactics are effective in winning elections, but are ineffective in governance.  The GOP, especially Congressional Republicans have to start acting like adults, and govern.  The "Kenyan Socialist" Narrative is tired, and despite President Obama's dismal approval ratings, his approval ratings are higher than Congress...the institution which will now be controlled by the GOP. Regardless of whether one is a Democrat or Republican, all Americans are cynical (to say the least) towards Congress specifically and politics (and politicians) in general.  If the American people feel that Congress is not doing an effective job, then I can almost guarantee that Democrats will again win the White House in 2016, in addition to winning back some House seats and retaining their Senate seats (I do believe Congress will stay in GOP control for several years).  I can't emphasize this enough...GOP, stand for something, instead of standing against someone.  Push forth your own detailed policy agenda.  Continue outreach to communities that historically not been linked to the Republican Party (I applaud what Senator Rand Paul is doing in his outreach to African American Community).  Honestly...I don't think the GOP will stray far from their current course, and that is being the "Anti-Obama" Party.  They simply can't help themselves.  Example...after the election, there were feelings of goodwill and GOP leaders expressing their intent to work with the Obama Administration on certain issues.  That feeling of goodwill did not last long.  There are Republicans talking about impeaching President Obama, holding more congressional hearings on issues that they have already held hearings on, again...repealing Obamacare, and shutting down the government over immigration reform.  They can't help themselves...it's in their nature.  They somehow feel that their ideological stuborness is cloaked in some false sense of Patrick Henry, "Don't Tread On Me"-patriotism, which will indeed cause gridlock, ill-will and further political cynicism among the public.  It will become clear that the GOP, unfortunately, would rather spend their time attacking President Obama than governing with him.  Congressional Republicans...be careful what you wish for.  To much is given, much is required.

MESSAGE TO DEMOCRATS

You got your asses whupped!!!  Despite raising more money than the GOP, the Democrats certainly weren't able to use those resources effectively.  The Democrats messaging sucked.  And the candidates they recruited to run in some of these races were suspect.  The Democratic incumbents came off looking incompetent (Birth Control...really?  That's so 2012).  But the one strategy that the Democrats employed that was the nail in the proverbial coffin was not aligning themselves with President Obama.  Did the Democrats think that the GOP Opposition Research Department could not search the roll call of Senators and House Members and how they voted on legislation that the White House supported?  They can disavow themselves from the President all they want, but your record is your record.  The Democrats were scared and spineless.  They were more concerned about winning/retaining their seats than standing up for their principles, positions and their President.  Perhaps it is a blessing in disguise that the candidates who avoided the President lost.  Who wants a disloyal person, concerned more about their Senate/House seat, representing their interest?  I know I wouldn't. The Democrats ran away from a man who is the first African American President (A first among all major Western nations).  They ran from a man who since he has been in office, the economy has improved significantly.  Unemployment has decreased considerably.  They ran from a man who has done more for the LGBT than any President in the history of this country.  They ran from a man who gave the order to kill Osama Bin Laden.  They ran from the man who saved General Motors.  In addition to that, the Democrats could have ran on issues such as immigration, minimum wage, education, net neutrality, the environment, etc.  They forgot who they are, what their issues are, and threw the man who was responsible for getting many of them elected, under the proverbial bus.  Democrats...you deserve to lose.  President Obama...you need to stop acting passive aggressive and push forth your programs.  Channel your inner-Lyndon B. Johnson.  You're not back-bencher Congressman representing a district.  You're no longer the "Distinguished Gentleman from Illinois".  You represent the country.  You're the Chief of State.  You're the Commander of Chief of the largest military force in the World.  You're the Chief Executive Officer of the largest and most diverse government in the world.  ACT LIKE IT!!!  I see more people on Facebook share your accomplishments of your administration than the White House does.  DNC...fire your political and communications staff.  Your messaging was garbage, your recruitment of candidates was God awful (Alison Lundergran Grimes....really?), and the incumbents lacked organization and spines.  The "Stay Away From Obama" strategy was a failure.  Better to "go out" standing on your feet than on your knees.  If the GOP is calling a candidate out as a liberal...be damned for who you are.  

MESSAGE TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE
According to the New York Times, the 2014 Midterm Elections produced the lowest voter turnout in 72 years.  The articles mentioned that in"...43 states, less than half the eligible population bothered to vote, and no state broke 60 percent."  The national turnout was only 36%.  Young people didn't show up like they did in 2012.  African American and Latino turnout also dropped compared to 2012.  All of these groups are Democratic constituencies.  If you are a supporter of the Democratic Party, and didn't vote and/or encourage others to vote, well...you see the results.  SHAME ON YOURSELVES!!!  The same people who didn't vote, will be the ones who bitch and moan the most.  And for those who did vote...that's great, but voting is the easy part.  Are you now going to hold public officials accountable, or are you going to be the person who continues to bathe oneself in the glow of your television while watching the latest reality t.v. show.  As I have constantly stated, the problem with this country is the American Voter, not the politicians.  As Plato said, "One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors".  You like mediocrity...well...YOU GOT IT!!!

Partisan and ideological loyalties aside, I do pray that Democrats and Republicans alike can be respectful of each other, despite having differences on how this country is ran and in what direction this country is to go.  Enough of the gridlock...get stuff done.  Unlike much of the public, I have a great respect for Congress as an institution, and in the hands of the right people, Congress can become a place where the national interest is more important than self-interest.

That's the Marc-Up.  MEETING ADJOURNED!!!

ELECTION ANALYSIS-DOWN GOES CANTOR

The political landscape was rocked yesterday as Virginia Congressman and House GOP Majority Leader lost in the Virginia Republican Primary in the 7th Congressional District to political novice and economic professor, David Brat.  Eric Cantor is the first House Majority Leader to lose in a primary since the Majority Leader was created in 1899.  Eric Cantor was the darling of the GOP  and the Conservative Movement since first elected to Congress in 2000, assuming office in January of 2001.  He moved up steadily through the House Leadership ranks, first becoming Chief Deputy Republican Whip in 2002, then being elected House Minority Whip in 2008.  In the GOP takeover of the House in the 2010 elections, Cantor became the House Majority Leader, becoming the 2nd Highest Ranking House Member behind the Speaker of the House (John Boehner), and was considered the leader of the House GOP.  He has the distinction of being the highest ranking Jewish Member of Congress in history, and is currently the only Jewish Republican in Congress.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA-7th)-Picture Courtesy of the New York Times

As stated above, Leader Cantor, in his capacity as a representative, represents the 7th Congressional District of Virginia.  His district consists of the whole of Culpeper, Goochland, Hanover, Louisa, Madison, Orange, Page, and Rappahannock Counties, with parts of Caroline, Chesterfield, Henrico and Spotsylvania Counties also being represented.  The 7th District is an oddly shaped district, with most of the area being rural, sub-rural, with a few suburban areas.  This district has historically been a Republican/Conservative district, voting for GOP candidates on the state and federal levels, and is heavily favored to stay in Republican hands in the general election in November.  Leader Cantor scored an "80% or Higher" rating from the American Conservative Union, right along far-right Conservatives such as Congressman Louis Goehmert of Texas and Congressman Steven King of Iowa.  He gets a "100%" rating from the National Right to Life.  In 2012, the National Rifle Association said in their endorsement of Leader Cantor, that his “...steadfast leadership and support of the Second Amendment has been instrumental in passing numerous pro-gun and pro-hunting bills in Congress,” and “...as a result, he has earned our support...".  And despite joining the Tea Party Caucus in the House of Representatives, Leader Cantor has supported the attitudes behind the Tea Party, stating in 2010, that the "...Tea Party is born out of this deep-rooted frustration of lack of leadership in Washington and a real anger at the fiscal mismanagement here."  He is the epitome of what a small government/social conservative is supposed to be.  So how did the "Darling of the Republican Party" lose in the GOP primary to an economics professor who never held any political office, and raised only $200,000 to Eric Cantor's $5 Million dollars?  SHORT ANSWER:  He wasn't conservative enough.

As stated before, Leader Cantor comes from a Republican/Conservative District.  It's overwhelmingly white, it's rural in many areas, and the levels of education in the district are less than those of the congressional districts in Northern Virginia (8th, 9th and 10th).  There are also pockets of his district that live well below the poverty line.  In Page County, for example, 15% of the people live under the poverty line, well above the average in the Commonwealth of Virginia.  In Rappahannock County, 11% of the people live under the poverty line, 13% in Madison County, 10% in Louisa County, 11% in Orange County.  These are the people who have a sense of entitlement and believe their country is being taken from them.  That despite the Conservative Movement's mantra of "Personal Responsibility", they often blame government, minorities, gays, liberals, environmentalists for every problem on Earth.  They believe their guns are going to be taken away from the Muslim-Socialist President.  These views and attitudes reflect and embrace an anti-government sentiment that speaks to Culpeper County's motto, "Liberty or Death-Don't Tread On Me".  With all being said, and considering Leader Cantor's stellar conservative record, one question comes up...HOW CONSERVATIVE DO YOU HAVE TO BE?  Conservative "Street Cred" is becoming a litmus test within the GOP, that is causing a significant amount of infighting in the last few years. As a result, establishment Republicans feel the need to identify with the Tea Party, or move further to the political right in order to win re-election.  Moderate Republicans are all but extinct in the Republican Party, and as we see with this election, Establishment Republicans are now being beat by candidates who represent more "intense" views.

In a recent interview with Fox News, David Brat, the Republican nominee and odds-on favorite to win the general election, said that "Our founding was built by people who were political philosophers, and we need to get back to that, away from this kind of cheap political rhetoric of right and left".  (1) The reason why Plato, Aristotle, John Locke, Karl Marx, Edmund Burke, Adam Smith or any other political philosopher ever served in government, is because it is easier to criticize, make grandiose statements and write esoteric treatises about government, than it is to serve.  They lack the set of complex skills that it takes to be an effective politician.  What this country DOESN'T need is philosophers or ideologues.  We need public servants, who will serve their country first and get the job done.  The Tea Party is not about the people they serve, they are about their "cause".  Check the record of any Tea Party Caucus member, and see how many bills they sponsored, how many co-sponsors signed on to the bill, and how many of those bills got to the President's desk for signature.  Not many.  And (2) Mr. Brat speaks to "...cheap political rhetoric of right and left".  Cheap political rhetoric, unfortunately, is what the Tea Party specializes in. They are a party that thrives on divisiveness, not just amongst Democrats, but among members of their own party.  They are political agitators who set a foundation and push forth an agenda that more radical groups have identified with and latched onto.  Look up quotes by Congressman Louis Gohmert, Steven King, Michelle Bachmann, Ted Cruz, etc.  You may agree with some of their views, but do you feel that there views are practical for passing legislation that will benefit this country?  The simple answer is...NO!!!  This is why Congress can't get anything done.  Because you have "amateurs", who are not qualified to be the County Dog Catcher, much less a Member of Congress.  Anybody can be an "ideologue", pontificating about this and that view of government, but only the committed should be public servants?  Anybody can be a "philosopher", but can you be a patriotic pragmatist?  It is analogous to being a professor of military tactics and history at a service academy, and a soldier in the field.  Just because you are a professor of military tactics, does not mean you will be an effective soldier 

This election speaks to a bloc of people who are so fed up, so angry, so desperate, that they will elect any person to represent their interests, even though they already had someone who represented (effectively, I may add) their interests.  But the people of the 7th Congressional District will soon learn that the "grass is not always greener on the other side".

And that's the Marc-Up...MEETING ADJOURNED!!!